The Market for Civil ATC Surveillance Radars: Market Dynamics Changing

INTRODUCTION

Market estimates are based on sales published by manufacturers.

The last few years have seen a gradual decline in the number of radars ordered, as major nationwide programmes in North America and Europe have been completed and automatic dependent surveillance – broadcast systems have become available at lower cost for air navigation service providers (ANSPs) wanting to cover large tracts of low-density airspace. Radar orders in 2012 are considerably lower than in previous years (see table one).

However, despite the decline the market is still being buoyed by a number of consistent market drivers:

• For airspace in and around busy airports the need for increasingly precise surveillance have driven market demand for primary and secondary systems, especially in Europe. In the UK this demand has been particularly strong, driven in part by airports’ own commercial requirements to specify ATC equipment to maintain traffic services in poor weather and their ability to purchase this equipment separate from the national ANSP’s spending plans.
• Continuing strong demand for new radars from China. China has bought 37 new radars in the last three years – although many of the en-route systems are now in place the demand for increased surveillance at fast-growing airports is fuelling localised purchasing decisions.
• Consistent demand for radars in Latin America to cope with traffic growth. Latin America has relatively few ADS-B projects underway.
• Demand to upgrade and enhance existing radar systems, especially with enhanced Mode-S capabilities, in key north American and European markets.
• Increasing interest in developing joint military-civil surveillance systems, especially in Europe, where new flexible use of airspace concepts are being pioneered to improve overall ATM performance while cutting costs for military operators. 

MARKET SIZE BY VALUE

Understanding the size of the market is highly complex. Each new radar contract is customized and product/service delivery can vary from the supply of a new radar head to an existing facility, with associated software upgrade, to a turnkey delivery with a 10-year maintenance support package and a complete new workstation and display suite.

Table one highlights the variation in costs for the supply of a monopulse secondary surveillance radar can span from $3.1 million to around $13 million. However even this figures can be misleading – the  Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) spent over $300 million in its single modernized Long Range Radar and Display System which came into operation earlier this year.

It is possible therefore to give only a very high level view of the market.  Based on an assumption that a typical secondary/primary radar system with associated software is estimated at $6 million then the following market values – based on a bottom up approach from information supplied in table one – could be applied.

KEY TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRY DRIVERS

The capability of Mode-S systems to link increasing amounts of data between the ground and the air has helped a major expansion of MSSR services, especially in Europe. Mode-S operations will be enlarged over the coming years through the introduction of Eurocontrol’a Aircraft Identification (ACID) and ATM suRveillance Tracker And Server (ARTAS) programmes. A target of 2020 has been set for the implementation of the ACID aircraft identification system. In 2012 an initial Operational Capability using a mixture of Mode S Elementary Surveillance (ELS) and Mode 3/A codes through a Centralised Code Assignment & Management System (CCAMS) and, where necessary, enhanced Originating Region Code Assignment Method (E-ORCAM ), was achieved. The Declaration of Suitability for Use (DSU) for the last two releases ARTAS systems V8A1 and V8B1 was made in June 2012. 

ARTAS is part of the surveillance data processing chain, developed by Eurocontrol and installed in many ATC centres. The latest version V8B1 runs on a platform of two computers instead of the ten computers that were needed by previous generations, thanks to new middleware. ARTAS was designed and developed as surveillance data processing and distribution software capable of establishing an accurate air situation picture of all traffic over a wide geographical area; it then distributes the relevant surveillance information to a community of user systems. It receives messages from various surveillance sensors including primary radars, secondary radars, Mode S radars, ADS-B Ground Stations, ADS-C services and Wide-Area Multilateration in ASTERIX format, according to Eurocontrol.

The business for major integrators is moving slowly away from the sale of individual systems to integrating data from different surveillance technologies into a single networked system, or upgrading legacy systems with new capabilities to take account of new challenges – such as the impact by windfarms on radar signals or the need for more precise surveillance and data exchange.

The FAA certified the new radar supplied by Raytheon for the Long Range Radar Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) in late September 2011. The new radar transmitters are designed see out farther and provide improved detection and clutter management capability. The in-service decision paves the way for production deployments. Raytheon was awarded the USD260 million contract in 2006 to replace 40-year-old legacy systems at 82 sites in the US and Puerto Rico

Long-range military radar programmes with civil applications are another driver for growth in the market. One major new programme is Indonesia’s National Airspace Surveillance – Republic of Indonesia (NASRI) programme, which could involve the sale of up to 40 long-range surveillance radars to cover traffic currently tracked by systems in Singapore. Lockheed Martin has signed a teaming agreement with Indonesian technology firm PT CMI Teknologi to jointly pursue the.  The US company has also teamed with Atmos Sistemas Ltda to pursue the Brazilian Air Force's future Three-Dimensional (3-D) Long-Range Radar procurement program, which seeks to upgrade and enhance air space control over Brazil. The Brazilian Air Force has said it plans to modernize a network of more than 60 sensors, including ground-based long-range radars.
The resilience of the primary radar market is notable, now focused on providing airport surveillance capabilities to increasingly busy hubs. At ATCGlobal 2012 Cassidian launched its “ASR-NG” (Airport Surveillance Radar, Next Generation) primary radar for wide-area surveillance of the airfield’s surroundings as well as a secondary radar for automatic identification of the individual aircraft. Especially developed algorithms allow for safe guidance of aircraft even in the vicinity of wind turbines, according to the company.